Lightcone News is an AI-enabled news aggregator and forecasting platform designed for intellectually curious readers. We curate important global stories and pair them with probabilistic forecasts – helping you make better sense of the world.
What makes us different?
Lightcone News connects current events directly to their potential future outcomes. By integrating high-quality forecasts and additional contexts, we aim to offer practical tools to navigate uncertainty and foster realistic optimism. Ultimately, we hope to support constructive action towards shaping a better future.
How it works
Lightcone News brings together three types of forecasting:
Prediction Markets: Platforms where people trade outcomes as contracts. The price indicates collective confidence in a specific future event. Sources: Polymarket, Manifold , Futuur
Forecasting Platforms: Communities of skilled forecasters who explicitly estimate the likelihood of future events. Source: Metaculus
AI-Generated Forecasts: Our internal AI agents analyse news coverage and other data sources to generate research dossiers and forecasts. Note: AI forecasts are experimental. Accuracy and calibration data will be reported when available.
Interpreting Forecasts
All future scenarios are presented as probabilistic forecasts (0-100%). A forecast of 70% means the event is considered more likely to happen than not – but uncertainty remains. Forecasts are not certainties; they are informed estimates based on available data.
Accuracy and Trust
Forecasts aggregated from diverse perspectives typically outperform even expert predictions. Calibration.city tracks historical data from various platforms and shows that forecasts are extremely well-calibrated: Events predicted to have e.g. a 75% chance of occuring, do in fact occur about 75% of the time.
Contact Us
Questions, feedback, or suggestions? We'd love to hear from you:
contact@priorb.com
Lightcone News is a service provided by:
PRIORB UG, Gewerkenstr 8, 44805 Bochum, Germany