Featured Scenarios

Will the EU implement comprehensive AI regulation before the US Congress passes federal AI legislation?

40% Chance

Will global average temperature anomaly exceed 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels for any 12-month period before 2026?

57% Chance

Will China's GDP growth exceed 5% for the fiscal year 2024?

64% Chance

Will the US Federal Reserve cut interest rates by at least 50 basis points before the end of 2024?

61% Chance

Will OpenAI release a model demonstrably superior to GPT-4 before July 2024?

46% Chance